Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Name: Predictability of Tropical Cyclones
Brand: VDM Verlag
SKU: 9783639175844
Price: 253.91 RON
Availability: InStock

"Understanding the limits and uncertainties in Hurricane Prediction"

Autor: Jason Sippel

Limbă:

Legare: Carte broșată

Editura: VDM Verlag

Disponibilitate: La editor doar la comandă

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253.91 lei

Through methodology unique for tropical cyclones in peer-reviewed literature and through examination...

Informații despre carte

Autor

Jason Sippel

Limbă

engleză

Legare

Carte - Carte broșată

Publicat

2010

Pagini

176

EAN

9783639175844

ISBN

3639175840

Enbook ID

06825872

Editura

VDM Verlag

Greutate

268

Dimensiuni

152 x 229 x 10

Descriere completă

Through methodology unique for tropical cyclones in peer-reviewed literature and through examination of two tropical cyclone events, this study uses ensemble forecasts, sensitivity analysis, and ensemble data assimilation to explore the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclone formation with state-of-the-art cloud-resolving mesoscale models. In both of these cases, high convective available potential energy and mid-level moisture were found to benefit genesis. The strong sensitivity to initial condition differences in both cases exemplifies the inherent uncertainties in hurricane intensity prediction where moist convection is the key that limits predictability. The success of using an ensemble Kalman filter in assimilating Doppler radar radial velocity observations of a hurricane demonstrates that, even in cases of extreme uncertainty in a tropical cyclone, advanced data assimilation and subsequent event-dependent probabilistic forecasts can offer significant benefits.

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Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

"Understanding the limits and uncertainties in Hurricane Prediction"

Informații despre carte

Descriere completă

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