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Contingent Expectations

Name: Contingent Expectations
Brand: Princeton University Press
SKU: 9780691248530
Price: 247.34 RON
Availability: InStock

Uncertainty, Risk, and Economic Behavior in Historical Perspective

Autor: Alexander Nutzenadel, Jochen Streb

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Editura: Princeton University Press

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An empirical analysis and new theoretical framework for understanding economic expectations and deci...

Informații despre carte

Autor

Alexander Nutzenadel, Jochen Streb

Limbă

engleză

Legare

Carte - Copertă tare

Publicat

2026

Pagini

288

EAN

9780691248530

Enbook ID

49770859

Editura

Princeton University Press

Greutate

666

Dimensiuni

156 x 235

Descriere completă

An empirical analysis and new theoretical framework for understanding economic expectations and decision-making in different historical settings. Expectations play a crucial role in shaping economic behavior. But how are expectations actually formed, and how has this changed over time? The financial crisis of 2007–08 cast doubt on traditional theories of expectation formation, particularly the rational expectations framework. In Contingent Expectations, Alexander Nützenadel and Jochen Streb examine the ways that past experiences influence the economic expectations and decision-making of households, investors, and policymakers through history, and offer an alternative perspective. Combining a comprehensive empirical analysis of expectation formation from the eighteenth century to the present day with an assessment of the relevant economic theory, Nützenadel and Streb present a new theoretical framework, contingent expectations, for understanding economic expectation. Nützenadel and Streb show how economic actors developed new forecasting methods in response to rising uncertainty brought on by the Industrial Revolution, the expansion of global trade, financial market integration, and environmental crises. Tracing the evolution of economic theories on expectations, they find that when growing market volatility made forecasting more complex, economic agents often adapted with remarkable flexibility to changing circumstances. Challenging prevailing concepts of expectations, including rational choice and adaptive expectations, Nützenadel and Streb emphasize the heterogeneity of economic agents’ cognitive practices—in particular, the need to consider variation in information costs and historical experience. Expectation formation, they argue, is contingent on each individual’s current decision-making situation. Their account of the history of economic expectations has significant implications for current debates in economics.

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Contingent Expectations

Uncertainty, Risk, and Economic Behavior in Historical Perspective

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